Track record
Every warning sign we can check, and what happened next. Hits and misses, so you can judge for yourself.
Tremor's own alerts
Tremor started watching on Nov 6, 2026. We check what happened in the 12 months after each alert, so the first real results arrive in November 2027. Until then, every alert below is “too early to tell.”
13 serious alerts so far. The latest:
- AVBPNov 10, 2026Too early to tell
ArriVent BioPharma, Inc.: A key executive is leaving
- CLLSNov 9, 2026Too early to tell
- BHVNNov 9, 2026Too early to tell
Biohaven Therapeutics Ltd.: A key executive is leaving
- OCGNNov 9, 2026Too early to tell
Ocugen: A key executive is leaving
- SNGXNov 9, 2026Too early to tell
Soligenix: A key executive is leaving
- GOVXNov 9, 2026Too early to tell
GeoVax, Inc.: A key executive is leaving
- VSTMNov 9, 2026Too early to tell
Verastem, Inc.: A key executive is leaving
- RNACNov 9, 2026Too early to tell
Cartesian Therapeutics: A key executive is leaving
- TARANov 9, 2026Too early to tell
Protara Therapeutics: A key executive is leaving
- ENGNNov 9, 2026Too early to tell
enGene, Inc.: A key executive is leaving
- NVSNov 9, 2026Too early to tell
- LSTANov 9, 2026Too early to tell
Lisata Therapeutics, Inc.: A key executive is leaving
- ESLANov 9, 2026Too early to tell
Estrella Immunopharma, Inc.: A key executive is leaving
If Tremor had existed: 2016 to today
We went back through public records for smaller cancer-drug companies (fewer than 15 late-stage cancer trials) and checked what happened in the year after each warning sign. “Went badly” means one of the company's trials was stopped early within a year. For comparison, starting from a random day, that happened about 1 in 13 times.
Layoffs
Since 2016, smaller cancer-drug companies announced layoffs 90 times. In 11 out of 90, one of that company's trials was stopped within the next year. In the other 79, none was.
Starting from a random day instead, a trial was stopped within the next year about 1 in 13 times. So this sign came before bad news a bit more often than a random day.
We could only measure the stock's move on the news in 7 of these cases, which isn't enough to say what's typical.
Went badly: a trial was stopped within a year (11)Fine: no trial stopped (79)
How sure are we: High, based on 90 past cases. 12 more are less than a year old, so it's too early to tell.
See all 90 cases
Company Sign What happened next Stock on the news RXRX Jun 10, 2025 Trial stopped Aug 18, 2025 — VOR May 8, 2025 Trial stopped May 28, 2025 — AGEN Dec 5, 2024 Trial stopped Mar 26, 2025 — BOLT May 14, 2024 Trial stopped Sep 20, 2024 — ALLO Jan 5, 2024 Trial stopped Feb 20, 2024 -8% AGEN Aug 23, 2023 Trial stopped Mar 28, 2024 -11% CHRS Mar 6, 2023 Trial stopped Apr 5, 2023 -29% FTH Dec 8, 2022 Trial stopped Jan 24, 2023 — NUVB Aug 1, 2022 Trial stopped Aug 5, 2022 — BSX Jun 9, 2016 Trial stopped May 23, 2017 — LSTA Jan 6, 2016 Trial stopped Jan 15, 2016 — BOLT Oct 2, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — ARVN Sep 17, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — ORIC Aug 12, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — ACET Jul 23, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — ARVN May 1, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — TPST Apr 18, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — LYEL Apr 1, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — ALXO Mar 5, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — CTMX Jan 6, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — CLRB Dec 11, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — AUPH Nov 7, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — VRCA Oct 1, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — LONA Sep 17, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — INAB Sep 4, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — ANTX Aug 8, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — KYNB Aug 7, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — VIR Aug 1, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — CBIO Jul 30, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — TVRD Jun 18, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — ERAS May 16, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — XLO Mar 28, 2024 No trial stopped within a year -37% OKUR Feb 23, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — AUPH Feb 15, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — TVRD Jan 22, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — PMVP Jan 18, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — EXEL Jan 8, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — OKUR Dec 14, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — VIR Dec 13, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — CADL Nov 28, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — BEAM Oct 19, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — PVLA Aug 31, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — INO Aug 1, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — KYNB Jul 19, 2023 No trial stopped within a year -12% PVLA Jul 18, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — TECX Jul 12, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — TECX Jun 14, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — TECX May 22, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — DNTH Feb 7, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — INO Jan 31, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — RIGL Oct 11, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — ELTX Jul 25, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — INO Jul 19, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — CTMX Jul 13, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — VRCA Jun 3, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — ELVN Apr 14, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — IRON Feb 28, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — TECX Jan 7, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — ELTX Jan 4, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — RIGL Nov 15, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — IRON Oct 6, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — INDP Aug 16, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — INDP Aug 6, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — IONS Apr 6, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — TPST Jan 28, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — BSX Dec 1, 2020 No trial stopped within a year — BSX Nov 18, 2020 No trial stopped within a year — CRBP Oct 8, 2020 No trial stopped within a year — OCGN Jun 16, 2020 No trial stopped within a year — TPST Apr 6, 2020 No trial stopped within a year — COGT Mar 2, 2020 No trial stopped within a year +437% VSTM Feb 28, 2020 No trial stopped within a year — HALO Nov 12, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — HALO Nov 5, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — VSTM Oct 29, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — INO Jul 16, 2019 No trial stopped within a year +7% CNSY Jul 5, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — OCGN Mar 15, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — OCGN Jan 24, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — RNAC Jan 3, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — BSX Nov 15, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — JAZZ Jun 29, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — TPST May 3, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — CLRB Jan 8, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — TPST Jan 3, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — CHRS Jun 27, 2017 No trial stopped within a year — TPST Jun 21, 2017 No trial stopped within a year — TPST Dec 23, 2016 No trial stopped within a year — RIGL Sep 15, 2016 No trial stopped within a year — LSTA Mar 14, 2016 No trial stopped within a year — Stock on the news = close the day before the company's announcement to the close the day after. A dash means we couldn't find a clear announcement day or price data.
A key executive left
Since 2016, a key executive, like the head of research, left a smaller cancer-drug company 177 times. In 20 out of 177, one of that company's trials was stopped within the next year. In the other 157, none was.
Starting from a random day instead, a trial was stopped within the next year about 1 in 13 times. So this sign came before bad news a bit more often than a random day.
We could only measure the stock's move on the news in 11 of these cases, which isn't enough to say what's typical.
Went badly: a trial was stopped within a year (20)Fine: no trial stopped (157)
How sure are we: High, based on 177 past cases. 28 more are less than a year old, so it's too early to tell.
See all 177 cases
Company Sign What happened next Stock on the news NVCR Dec 1, 2025 Trial stopped Feb 23, 2026 — SNDX Jun 26, 2025 Trial stopped Jun 30, 2025 -12% SNDX May 16, 2025 Trial stopped Jun 30, 2025 -12% XNCR May 7, 2025 Trial stopped Dec 24, 2025 — VOR Apr 3, 2025 Trial stopped May 28, 2025 — SNDX Dec 20, 2024 Trial stopped Jun 30, 2025 -12% JAZZ Dec 16, 2024 Trial stopped Jan 28, 2025 — NVCR Sep 3, 2024 Trial stopped Jan 10, 2025 — BOLT May 14, 2024 Trial stopped Sep 20, 2024 — AUTL Apr 1, 2024 Trial stopped Dec 12, 2024 +1% ALLR Mar 4, 2024 Trial stopped Dec 1, 2024 — ALLR Feb 1, 2024 Trial stopped Dec 1, 2024 — TNGX Aug 7, 2023 Trial stopped May 22, 2024 — CHRS Mar 6, 2023 Trial stopped Apr 5, 2023 -29% KPTI Jul 28, 2022 Trial stopped Jul 3, 2023 — KPTI Mar 29, 2022 Trial stopped Jun 24, 2022 — CTMX Oct 6, 2020 Trial stopped Oct 27, 2020 — CTMX May 29, 2019 Trial stopped May 21, 2020 +10% HALO Dec 13, 2018 Trial stopped Nov 4, 2019 — VSTM Oct 18, 2018 Trial stopped Jun 19, 2019 — NTHI Nov 6, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — RXRX Nov 5, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — RNAC Oct 21, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — RNAZ Oct 8, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — KPTI Oct 8, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — VRTX Aug 4, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — CBIO Jul 31, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — JAZZ Jul 10, 2025 No trial stopped within a year +28% ARVN Jul 9, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — VOR Jun 26, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — CRDF Jun 17, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — IONS Jun 12, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — ENGN Jun 4, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — ISRG May 15, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — HURA May 7, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — IMVT Apr 21, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — INBX Apr 1, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — PYXS Mar 18, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — CLRB Mar 17, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — ALXO Mar 5, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — SLS Jan 16, 2025 No trial stopped within a year — LXEO Dec 19, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — KYTX Nov 13, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — VRCA Nov 4, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — LONA Oct 7, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — DTIL Sep 12, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — INAB Sep 11, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — KYNB Sep 6, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — ALXO Aug 6, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — BEAM Jul 15, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — GNPX Jun 24, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — CMPX May 28, 2024 No trial stopped within a year -63% IOVA Mar 29, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — TARA Mar 18, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — IMNN Mar 12, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — HOWL Mar 7, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — AUPH Feb 29, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — ENGN Feb 14, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — ELTX Feb 2, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — RNAZ Jan 16, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — LONA Jan 8, 2024 No trial stopped within a year — NVCR Jan 4, 2024 No trial stopped within a year +12% EXEL Dec 20, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — HURA Nov 21, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — MAIA Nov 15, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — RNAC Nov 13, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — IMNM Oct 4, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — OCGN Sep 19, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — BDTX Sep 18, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — TPST Sep 7, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — XLO Sep 5, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — GNLX Aug 28, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — KOD Aug 17, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — KYNB Jul 25, 2023 No trial stopped within a year -12% PVLA Jul 13, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — VSTM Jul 12, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — BFRI May 26, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — PYXS May 24, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — TECX May 1, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — ERAS Apr 10, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — SNDX Mar 30, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — IMNN Feb 10, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — RIGL Feb 3, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — VIR Jan 25, 2023 No trial stopped within a year — LYEL Dec 16, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — AUPH Oct 21, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — DTIL Sep 2, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — ELTX Jul 25, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — VIR Jul 14, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — CTMX Jul 13, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — AGIO Jul 12, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — ALLR Jun 30, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — TECX Jun 29, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — GERN Jun 15, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — AGIO May 26, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — AGIO May 18, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — APRE May 17, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — OPK May 13, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — INO May 10, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — ELVN Apr 14, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — PYXS Apr 14, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — BOLT Mar 4, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — SNDX Mar 1, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — IRON Feb 28, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — LYEL Feb 15, 2022 No trial stopped within a year — TARA Oct 18, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — CGEM Oct 18, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — CRBP Sep 22, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — CRBP Aug 18, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — BDTX Aug 5, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — IMNM Aug 5, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — CBIO Aug 5, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — AGIO Jul 29, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — INDP Jul 23, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — RCUS Jul 19, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — IOVA Jun 14, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — DNTH May 27, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — CGEM May 21, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — IOVA May 19, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — ACET May 17, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — OKUR May 14, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — KPTI May 3, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — DTIL Apr 15, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — IRON Apr 14, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — DTIL Apr 6, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — CBIO Feb 23, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — RLMD Jan 5, 2021 No trial stopped within a year — COGT Oct 26, 2020 No trial stopped within a year — BSX Aug 3, 2020 No trial stopped within a year — TARA Jul 24, 2020 No trial stopped within a year — VRCA Jul 23, 2020 No trial stopped within a year — ACET Jul 7, 2020 No trial stopped within a year — BSX Jun 8, 2020 No trial stopped within a year — DCTH May 22, 2020 No trial stopped within a year — GNPX Apr 28, 2020 No trial stopped within a year — IDYA Apr 7, 2020 No trial stopped within a year — ALDX Mar 12, 2020 No trial stopped within a year — KURA Jan 23, 2020 No trial stopped within a year — PVLA Jan 8, 2020 No trial stopped within a year — KYNB Dec 16, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — TARA Oct 2, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — XNCR Jun 27, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — VSTM Jun 25, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — COGT Jun 14, 2019 No trial stopped within a year +437% RIGL May 16, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — PTGX May 13, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — CRBP Apr 1, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — NVCR Mar 21, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — AGIO Feb 26, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — OCGN Jan 24, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — TPST Jan 22, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — SLS Jan 7, 2019 No trial stopped within a year — TECX Dec 21, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — CTMX Dec 20, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — TPST Dec 13, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — TPST Dec 6, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — RNAC Dec 3, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — CORT Nov 19, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — IONS Oct 19, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — RNAC Sep 27, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — CRIS Sep 27, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — AGIO Sep 5, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — CRDF Jun 22, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — RNAC Jun 15, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — RIGL Jan 26, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — RNAC Jan 2, 2018 No trial stopped within a year — CRSP Oct 2, 2017 No trial stopped within a year — OCGN Sep 22, 2017 No trial stopped within a year — EXEL Sep 8, 2017 No trial stopped within a year — ATNM May 16, 2017 No trial stopped within a year — RLMD Apr 27, 2017 No trial stopped within a year — CHRS Apr 10, 2017 No trial stopped within a year — SLS Jan 31, 2017 No trial stopped within a year — TPST Dec 23, 2016 No trial stopped within a year — CLRB Jul 14, 2016 No trial stopped within a year — TPST Mar 31, 2016 No trial stopped within a year — CRIS Jan 21, 2016 No trial stopped within a year — Stock on the news = close the day before the company's announcement to the close the day after. A dash means we couldn't find a clear announcement day or price data.
A trial was stopped early
Since 2016, smaller cancer-drug companies stopped a trial early 202 times. 88 out of 202 said it was a business decision, like saving money or focusing on other drugs, and 26 out of 202 said the drug wasn't working well enough or had safety problems.
In the 34 cases where we could find the company's announcement, the stock typically barely moved from the day before to the day after.
When the drug itself wasn't working, the drop can be big (one fell 76%), but we only have 4 such cases with a clear announcement day, too few to say what's typical.
How sure are we: High, based on 202 past cases.
See the 34 cases with a clear announcement day
Company Stopped What happened next Stock on the news SNGX May 22, 2026 Announced Apr 28, 2026 -76% IBRX May 19, 2026 Announced Mar 31, 2026 +7% AGEN Apr 27, 2026 Announced Jul 13, 2026 +52% RLMD Mar 17, 2026 Announced Mar 9, 2026 +49% KPTI Oct 3, 2025 Announced Oct 10, 2025 -3% ARTV Jul 30, 2025 Announced Nov 13, 2025 -18% SNDX Jun 30, 2025 Announced May 14, 2025 -12% LSTA Jun 6, 2025 Announced Jun 26, 2025 +11% RXRX Feb 24, 2025 Announced Jan 14, 2025 -5% IMVT Jan 10, 2025 Announced Mar 18, 2025 -6% CRDF Dec 24, 2024 Announced Dec 10, 2024 +52% AUTL Dec 12, 2024 Announced Jan 14, 2025 +1% MGNX Jul 4, 2024 Announced May 10, 2024 -70% INMB Jun 5, 2024 Announced Apr 22, 2024 +21% AGEN Mar 28, 2024 Announced May 7, 2024 -11% ALLO Feb 20, 2024 Announced Jan 5, 2024 -8% ALLO Oct 11, 2023 Announced Dec 18, 2023 +10% INMB Sep 28, 2023 Announced Dec 19, 2023 -14% CHRS Apr 5, 2023 Announced Jun 16, 2023 -29% MGNX Mar 18, 2023 Announced Feb 14, 2023 -24% PBYI Jan 2, 2023 Announced Dec 13, 2022 +13% IBRX Sep 13, 2022 Announced Nov 11, 2022 +18% MGNX Jul 29, 2022 Announced Jul 5, 2022 +12% AGEN Oct 22, 2021 Announced Oct 22, 2021 -26% IBRX Sep 29, 2021 Announced Dec 17, 2021 +14% APRE Aug 23, 2021 Announced Dec 8, 2021 +10% OPK Feb 24, 2021 Announced Jan 12, 2021 +2% MGNX Oct 15, 2020 Announced Oct 15, 2020 -4% IBRX Jun 15, 2020 Announced Jun 22, 2020 +34% CTMX May 21, 2020 Announced Mar 31, 2020 +10% IMNN Dec 15, 2019 Announced Feb 28, 2020 -13% IOVA Apr 16, 2019 Announced May 16, 2019 +34% DCTH Oct 15, 2018 Announced Feb 11, 2019 +3% DCTH Dec 15, 2017 Announced Dec 29, 2017 0% Stock on the news = close the day before the company's announcement to the close the day after. A dash means we couldn't find a clear announcement day or price data.
What this doesn't show
- Only companies still listed today. Companies that went out of business aren't included, which may make the past look a little better than it was.
- Quiet edits to trial records (like changing the main goal) aren't here. There's no free archive of old versions, so Tremor builds that history itself, starting Nov 6, 2026.
- Many trial stops are business decisions, not bad results. A stopped trial isn't always bad news for the stock.
- Most past cases had no clear announcement day we could find, so stock moves are only shown when we have at least 10 of them.
- This is history, not a prediction, and it isn't advice to buy or sell anything.
Last counted Nov 10, 2026.